Page 1 or Bust

[00:00:00] It is Friday, January 10th. This week, Meta goes all in for Trump. What does it mean for marketers and brand safety?

[00:00:09] Also, a big flaw in the methodology of A-B testing has been found. TikTok is pleading for its life in the U.S. today.

[00:00:17] And the details behind the strange Facebook Marketplace and eBay merger.

[00:00:23] I'm Todd Maffin. That's ahead in our Friday wrap-up of the week in digital marketing.

[00:00:30] All right, it was a busy week at Meta, for better or worse, so let's start there.

[00:00:34] First of all, as you may have heard, the company is dropping its fact-checkers and turning it over to Community Notes-style system.

[00:00:41] And just yesterday, some leaked new training material obtained by media shows that Meta will now welcome a range of derogatory remarks

[00:00:48] targeting races, nationalities, ethnic groups, sexual orientations, and gender identities.

[00:00:53] The document is a rundown of the new hate speech policy.

[00:00:56] Among the newly permissible content on Facebook and Instagram, the training materials include examples like

[00:01:01] immigrants are grubby, filthy pieces of shit, gays are freaks, and look at that tranny under a photo of a 17-year-old girl.

[00:01:12] When asked about the policy changes, a Meta spokesperson referred to a blog post by the newly appointed global policy chief who defended the changes,

[00:01:19] saying the platform should allow controversial topics that are discussed freely elsewhere.

[00:01:24] Today, Meta removed LGBTQ options from Messenger.

[00:01:28] These were themes which featured the trans and non-binary pride flag colors and had been available for years.

[00:01:34] Also today, the company removed tampons from men's bathrooms.

[00:01:38] These were provided for non-binary and transgender employees who used the men's restroom and may have needed sanitary products.

[00:01:45] We also learned this week that in 2023, Meta reportedly rolled out guardrails for high-spending advertisers,

[00:01:52] giving them special treatment by bypassing automatic content moderation and sending their content straight to human reviewers.

[00:02:01] The catch? He had to be spending $1,500 or more per day to get this VIP pass.

[00:02:08] Internal documents show a two-tiered system that benefited big spenders while leaving smaller advertisers stuck with its automated moderation.

[00:02:17] And Instagram, fueled by Reels, is set to overtake Facebook as the top U.S. social ad platform in 2025.

[00:02:24] Ad revenue is projected to rise 16% year-over-year to $37 billion.

[00:02:28] This comes from eMarketer, which estimates more than 25% of Instagram's ad revenue will come from Reels and ad formats other than the feed and stories this year.

[00:02:38] That estimate was published before the big changes at Meta were announced this week.

[00:02:47] To the world of advertising now in a new Journal of Marketing study uncovering a big flaw in A-B testing on digital ad platforms,

[00:02:56] revealing that the data you rely on might be misleading.

[00:03:00] Here's what's happening.

[00:03:01] When you run an A-B test, you're trying to see which ad performs better.

[00:03:05] But what's really happening, according to the study's researchers, is a phenomenon called divergent delivery.

[00:03:10] This occurs when platforms like Meta and Google use their targeting algorithms to show different ads to different user groups.

[00:03:17] The platform isn't splitting your audience 50-50, as you may have thought.

[00:03:22] Instead, it's choosing which users to see which ad.

[00:03:25] The winning ad might not actually be better.

[00:03:28] It just reached the audience most likely to engage with it.

[00:03:31] Ad performance could be influenced by the audience mix, not the creative.

[00:03:35] If you're making big decisions based on these tests, it may be worth reading the paper.

[00:03:39] We have a link to it in Tuesday's email newsletter, which you can find on our site at todayindigital.com slash newsletter.

[00:03:46] Starting February 16th, Google will let advertisers use digital fingerprinting for targeted ads.

[00:03:52] That's a method of collecting data from devices and browsers to track users.

[00:03:56] Google called this a move toward less prescriptive ad targeting.

[00:03:59] It's a major U-turn for the company, which previously labeled fingerprinting as, quote, wrong, unquote.

[00:04:06] The UK's Information Commissioner's Office has already raised red flags warning businesses to tread carefully with fingerprinting or face consequences.

[00:04:15] Because fingerprinting is such a widespread practice, though, enforcement is tricky.

[00:04:19] Google says it plans to invest in technologies that will make that data collection safer, but hasn't said exactly how those tools will protect user privacy,

[00:04:27] especially since the whole point of fingerprinting is sort of the polar opposite of privacy.

[00:04:33] A big W for marketers, a big L for consumers.

[00:04:37] Still for advertisers, this shift opens the door to better cross-device measurement, particularly for connected TV, where conversions often happen on other devices.

[00:04:47] Comcast wants a piece of your ad budget.

[00:04:49] The company is targeting small and medium businesses with Universal Ads, a new platform that will launch in this quarter,

[00:04:55] partnering with other major players like NBCUniversal, Roku, and Fox.

[00:04:59] It is expected to bring more ad dollars to streaming services amid social media's continued dominance.

[00:05:06] But have we hit peak ad network?

[00:05:08] New networks flooded the market in 2024.

[00:05:11] Financial services, even real estate ad networks.

[00:05:13] Experts this week told Digiday in a great piece they had up on their site that they predict even more ad network launches in 2025, along with consolidation.

[00:05:23] Amazon Ads announced that brands using its data cleanroom, Amazon Marketing Cloud, can now analyze five years of consumer shopping data.

[00:05:31] That's up from just 13 months.

[00:05:32] And a bug in Google Ads' rollout of an upcoming feature is letting some advertisers pause, enable, or remove conversion assets at the asset group level for Performance Max campaigns.

[00:05:46] Google's ad liaison confirmed the issue and said it is being addressed.

[00:05:54] To other social media other than meta, Reddit has announced some new features for businesses, including Reddit Pro Trends,

[00:06:00] which lets companies monitor real-time conversations on the platform about their brand, products, industry, and so on.

[00:06:07] There's a new Trends tab that tracks keywords and phrases, providing a visualization of conversation volume,

[00:06:13] relevant communities, and related discussions for about 100,000 smart keywords.

[00:06:18] Reddit is also introducing a new type of ad for the Ask Me Anything sessions they do,

[00:06:24] letting businesses promote their own AMA Q&A sessions directly from the ad dashboard and track RSVP numbers for those interactive events.

[00:06:33] Oddly as well, Reddit may be seeing a decline in Google rankings, with noticeable drops in search visibility since Tuesday.

[00:06:42] Tools like SEMrush are showing the shift, with user-generated content sites like Reddit experiencing volatility.

[00:06:47] Google recently just signed a deal to use Reddit content.

[00:06:50] Did the deal go south, or is this just a glitch?

[00:06:54] Blue Skies reportedly eyeing a $700 million valuation, with Bain Capital Ventures leading the funding round.

[00:07:00] The boost follows a surge in users spurred by Musk's Trump campaign, which pushed some ex-users to seek alternatives.

[00:07:08] Over to YouTube now.

[00:07:10] The company there is testing another tool that lets creators turn long-form content into shorts.

[00:07:15] Details, though, are limited.

[00:07:16] If you are part of the experiment, you'll see an option to create a video highlight in the video editor tool in YouTube Studio Desktop.

[00:07:23] And it announced this week it is expanding 3-minute shorts to all users.

[00:07:28] And now, any clip under 3 minutes will automatically appear in the shorts shelf on your subscription feed and your brand's channel page.

[00:07:37] Plus, they'll be listed in the shorts section of YouTube Studio and qualify to be recommended in the YouTube feed.

[00:07:44] And finally, Fortune reported this week that X is considering making new users pay money to sign up, as the company is expected to suffer major financial losses for last year.

[00:07:55] Fortune's initial reporting said new users would pay $8 to sign up for X and get one month free of X Premium.

[00:08:02] That's a $7-month subscription that includes a verified checkmark badge.

[00:08:06] But at our deadline today, Fortune said it had reason to doubt one of the sources for its story and has placed the story into review.

[00:08:12] Elon Musk has denied the report.

[00:08:19] To the world of search now.

[00:08:21] Page 1 of Google isn't just prime real estate.

[00:08:25] It's also the key, apparently, to driving AI brand mentions.

[00:08:29] A new study found a correlation between Google rankings and brand mentions in ChatGPT's answers,

[00:08:34] indicating that brands ranking on page 1 of Google are more likely to get mentioned in LLMs.

[00:08:41] As brands push for discoverability in LLMs, optimizing for generative engines has become the next big marketing challenge.

[00:08:50] And while it differs from traditional SEO, according to the study's researchers, the formula remains the same.

[00:08:56] Rank high, stay relevant.

[00:08:58] Google rankings seemed to matter, but backlinks and content variety did not.

[00:09:04] Brands on page 1 of Google showed a strong correlation with mentions in LLMs, while Bing rankings mattered slightly less.

[00:09:12] And backlinks, as I mentioned, had a weak or neutral impact.

[00:09:16] And multimodal content also didn't deliver the boost researchers had expected.

[00:09:21] Has Google dropped a January 2025 local ranking update?

[00:09:25] There are reports of major ranking changes with Google Maps and local search results.

[00:09:29] Many noticed drastic shifts over last weekend.

[00:09:32] It was not immediately clear whether that was an algorithm update or a bug.

[00:09:37] If you've ever seen a blank screenshot in the Google Search Console's URL inspection tool, don't panic.

[00:09:43] Gary Ilias of Google says as long as the desired content is in the HTML tab, you're good.

[00:09:49] Rendering can fail sometimes, but if it happens consistently, that could be a problem.

[00:09:55] AI's search engine startup Perplexity is challenging Google's traditional auction-based ad system with a new CPM model.

[00:10:04] Marketers sponsor questions, not just keywords, with AI-driven answers.

[00:10:09] And Microsoft this week used Bing to trick users into thinking they were on Google.

[00:10:14] If you searched Google on Bing without signing into a Microsoft account,

[00:10:17] you got a page that looked suspiciously like Google, complete with a search bar,

[00:10:22] a Google-like doodle, and familiar text.

[00:10:25] Bing later disabled the new look.

[00:10:33] All right, a quick look at what changed in the DTC and e-commerce world this past week.

[00:10:38] U.S. holiday retail sales hit $282 billion, up 4%,

[00:10:42] while global sales soared to $1.2 trillion.

[00:10:45] That is a 3% rise.

[00:10:49] Mobile and social commerce powered a holiday sales surge that outpaced predictions.

[00:10:54] And thank you, robot overlords.

[00:10:56] AI boosted the shopping experience with product recommendations, targeted offers,

[00:11:01] and personalized customer order support, influencing 20% of online holiday orders.

[00:11:08] And Meta is exploring a new partnership with eBay that would see eBay listings displayed on Facebook Marketplace.

[00:11:17] The move reportedly to align with EU antitrust regulations on Marketplace listings.

[00:11:27] The U.S. Supreme Court today heard arguments from TikTok as to why the sell or be banned legislation in the U.S.

[00:11:34] should not go through.

[00:11:35] Legal analysts mostly said that the court appeared to be leaning toward upholding the law,

[00:11:40] which would mean TikTok would either be required to sell its American operations

[00:11:45] or be kicked out of app stores in the U.S.

[00:11:48] Despite the uncertainty of whether TikTok will even still be an app in the U.S. in 10 days,

[00:11:53] agencies are still going all in on ad spend.

[00:11:56] TikTok ad spend in the U.S. is set to surge nearly 60% year over year in the first two months of 2025.

[00:12:04] With the TikTok ban looming, competitor platform Triller is seizing the moment by offering users the option

[00:12:10] to download their TikTok content directly into the Triller app.

[00:12:15] Now at savemytiktoks.com, users can link their TikTok account to Triller and transfer their TikTok clips.

[00:12:24] Creators, though, are torn on a TikTok alternative.

[00:12:27] While 1 in 10 adults in the U.S. consider being a TikTok creator for their job,

[00:12:32] many are turning to YouTube and Instagram.

[00:12:34] Creators favor Instagram for audience growth, while YouTube is the golden ticket for monetization.

[00:12:41] TikTok's head of ad sales in North America will be leaving the company that was announced this week.

[00:12:45] His name is Samir Singh.

[00:12:47] He joined ByteDance in 2019 and played a pivotal role in driving TikTok's North American ad business.

[00:12:53] He will remain with the company until the end of February.

[00:12:57] TikTok's U.S. agency lead, Jack Bamberger, reportedly left the company a week ago.

[00:13:03] It is not clear if TikTok plans to replace him.

[00:13:06] And finally, TikTok's sister app, Lemon8, has been sponsoring posts on TikTok to push users to migrate to the app

[00:13:13] as a potential U.S. ban looms.

[00:13:15] The ban law, though, does apply to other apps owned by TikTok's Chinese parent ByteDance, apps including Lemon8.

[00:13:23] Reports say ByteDance could be betting that regulators and app stores become so focused on TikTok,

[00:13:29] they may overlook its other apps.

[00:13:31] ByteDance also released an app called Malolo, featuring short dramas, TV and movies on Google's App Store.

[00:13:40] That quietly launched in November.

[00:13:46] And a few other interesting tidbits that didn't fit anywhere else.

[00:13:50] Getty Images and Shutterstock have agreed to merge, creating a $3.7 billion visual content powerhouse.

[00:13:56] The deal highlights the growing demand for images from content creators and platforms.

[00:14:01] Getty's CEO will lead the combined company.

[00:14:05] A high-severity WordPress vulnerability has been discovered,

[00:14:08] which lets attackers inject arbitrary shortcodes into sites using the Popular Posts plugin without needing a user account.

[00:14:17] WordPress Popular Posts is installed on more than 100,000 websites.

[00:14:23] All versions up to and including version 7.1.0 are vulnerable.

[00:14:29] And finally, Microsoft is rolling back its Bing image creator upgrade

[00:14:34] after users complained about the DALI 3 model's poor performance since the December update.

[00:14:39] The company confirmed it is reverting to an older version of the model for now,

[00:14:44] but it could take weeks to fix.

[00:14:49] And those were the top digital marketing stories over the last five days.

[00:14:52] All the sources are in our email newsletter, which comes out every weekday at 5 p.m. Eastern

[00:14:58] and is completely free.

[00:15:00] Sign up at todayindigital.com slash newsletter.

[00:15:03] So what to make of all this meta news?

[00:15:06] Over the next couple of weeks, we will have extended coverage for you.

[00:15:09] Will advertisers abandon the platform like they did with X?

[00:15:13] Is meta's stranglehold over the marketing community too strong?

[00:15:16] And what safety tools exist there to keep your brand's content away from the newly permissible slurs?

[00:15:23] Tuesday, our meta ads correspondent Andrew Foxwell will be here to walk us through all of that.

[00:15:28] Then, a week later on the 21st, a new study provides some guidance on what to do about your company's diversity initiatives in this new American-led culture war.

[00:15:38] They have some interesting data on how brand engagement is affected by posting on social media about D&I.

[00:15:45] Can posting about it boost brand loyalty and improve consumer perceptions?

[00:15:49] Or does it risk coming across as performative?

[00:15:53] That's a week from Tuesday.

[00:15:56] I'm Todd Maffin.

[00:15:57] Follow me on BlueSky at ToddMaffin.com.

[00:16:00] Follow us on BlueSky at todayindigital.com.

[00:16:03] Thanks for listening.

[00:16:04] Have a restful weekend.

[00:16:05] The next newsletter is out Monday.

[00:16:07] I will be back in your podcast feed on Tuesday.

[00:16:10] Bye.